3 in 10 Albertans would vote for independence — but only half committed to separating: poll

 

Only half of those who are interested in separatism are truly committed to following through when faced with the costs and consequences of doing so. Every day, groups in Alberta gather to sign a petition to force a vote on the province leaving Canada. Ipsos polled approximately 2,000 Canadians between January 9 and 14 as part of its Confederation Stress Test study, and the results were recently made public. The pollster polled 500 people in Alberta and 500 people in Quebec about independence. They found that three out of ten people in both provinces initially supported independence, but that support varies in the Prairie province.

About 29% of Albertans and 31% of Quebecers responded "yes" when asked if they would vote for their province to begin the process of separating from Canada and seeking a new agreement to define its future relationship with the country. (Ipsos stated that this includes those who say they would lean toward it as well as those who say they would definitely or probably vote yes.)

However, the Ipsos research that “stress-tested” those sentiments by introducing real-world consequences revealed that actual committed support for separation is roughly half the levels in both provinces.

 After taking into account potential drawbacks like decreases in standard of living, losses in pensions, and renegotiations of trade agreements, only 15 to 16 percent of Albertans and Quebecers maintained their support.

The stress test methodology, which Ipsos said asked separatist supporters whether they would maintain their position under five different challenging conditions unique to each province, revealed nearly identical patterns.

 In Alberta, there are three distinct kinds of separatists: committed, conditional and symbolic.

 Ready to pay the price: the most committed who would maintain support for leaving regardless of the economic or social costs made up 56 per cent of respondents who said they would vote to leave Canada.

 Still deciding: 25% of respondents indicated that their support was conditional and would fluctuate based on the circumstances. Just sending a message: The symbolic separatists, whose support, according to Ipsos, would collapse when costs or consequences appear and are using the threat of independence primarily to express frustration rather than genuine intent to leave, made up 19 percent. Ipsos said economics outweigh anger amongst this group.

Ipsos said that means that for roughly half of separatist supporters in both provinces, independence is more a political message to Ottawa than a plan they are prepared to suffer costs and sacrifices to achieve.

According to Ipsos, the fact that Quebec and Alberta had numbers that were distributed similarly suggests that the psychology of separatism operates in a similar manner regardless of language, culture, or specific grievances. However, there were a few subtle distinctions: Albertans were more likely to say that the province has historically been mistreated within Confederation, while Quebecers were more likely to say that the province's future would be better served outside of Canada. According to Ipsos, the most fervent separatists in both provinces were more likely than conditional or symbolic separatists to choose future prosperity as their reason for voting "yes." Although 91% of committed separatists believe Alberta is deeply alienated from Canada, they acknowledged that policy reforms could assist, according to Ipsos. The research suggests governments will have to try a range of policies to lure different separatist groups back into the fold.

Seventy percent of the most ardent separatists in Alberta would rather join the United States than become an independent nation. According to the survey, only 4.2 million of Alberta's five million residents are truly ready to consider independence, while 800,000 of them are. The "Forever Canadian" petition, which was launched to counter separatists who want a referendum on Alberta independence, is on one side of the argument for a referendum on the issue. The data come as competing groups are pushing for one.

The Forever Canadian petition started by Thomas Lukaszuk, a former deputy premier in Alberta, seeks to make it official policy for the province to remain a part of Canada. After obtaining approximately 438,000 signatures, it was approved by Elections Alberta, exceeding the 294,000-signature threshold required to initiate a possible referendum.

The Alberta government implemented new regulations following the approval of the Forever Canadian petition. One of the changes was lowering the signature requirements for citizen-initiated referendums while also increasing the length of time petitioners have to collect the necessary signatures to get a question on a ballot.

Consequently, the pro-independence group must gather at least 177,732 signatures by May 2; 10% of those signatures must come from eligible voters who participated in the most recent provincial election. Before the petition can be presented to the government of Alberta, the signatures must first be verified by the chief electoral officer of the province. “Do you agree that the Province of Alberta shall become a sovereign country and cease to be a province in Canada?” was the title of the referendum proposal in question, which was presented by the separatist group the Alberta Prosperity Project last year and collected under the banner "Stay Free Alberta."

It’s being led by Mitch Sylvestre, the chief executive of the Alberta Prosperity Project and a United Conservative Party constituency association president.

 For the past three weeks, Stay Free Alberta has been holding events to collect signatures, and there have been reports of long lines at locations across the province. According to Sylvestre, the goal is to surpass the 400,000 signatures Lukaszuk's petition received.

As part of its Confederation Stress Test study, Ipsos polled 2,000 Canadians between January 9 and 14, 500 from Alberta and 500 from Quebec. 19 times out of 20, the national poll is thought to be accurate within +/- 2.7%, and the provincial poll is thought to be accurate within 5.4%.